🔗 Share this article

Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.