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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.