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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."