Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.