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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd